POT ODDS VS ODDS OF WINNING

Most poker novices just want to get down to playing the game without having to trouble their heads with pesky things such as odds and statistics. If however, you want a fighting chance when mixing it up with the big boys you'll need to understand the probabilistic relations between the poker deck, the other players and the pot in the middle of the table. One of the most important statistical relationships in a game of poker, and something all beginners need to get to grips with, is the relationship between the pot odds and the odds of winning.

Pot odds are simply the quantitative relation between the size of the pot and the size of the wager required if you want to carry on playing (by calling or raising). If , for instance, there is $100 in the pot and you need to bet $20 dollars in order to call then the pot odds are 5-1. In order to stand a fighting chance of winning a player's odds of winning ought to be better than the pot odds.

The odds of winning are somewhat more complicated to calculate but once you get to grips with them you will never look back and will feel like you've been playing blind for too long. To keep it simple, the way you calculate your odds of winning is by counting how many possible unseen cards there are that may help you improve your hand (unless of course your hand is already unbeatable, in which case you'll not really need to consult the odds).

Lets say for example, based on your current hand and the flop, you have reached the conclusion that a total of 14 possible cards will improve your hand, you have, up to this point, seen a total of five cards. This means that out of the 52 card deck there are a 47 that you have yet to see, 14 of which you need and 33 will be no good for you. By dividing the number of cards that you don't need by the ones that you do, you arrive at your odds of winning. In this case your odds of winning are around 2.4-1. In order to determine whether or not your odds of winning are better than your the pot odds you must calculate whether there are at least 2.4 times the amount you must wager in the pot. 2.4 x 20 = 48, there is currently $100 in the pot, so the odds are indeed favorable and you should either call or raise.

Of course this method is not fool proof, the reason being (if you haven't already spotted it) that you have also calculated the cards that your opponents are currently holding in with the ones you have not yet seen. This will affect the odds as some of those cards that you need will inevitably be held by other players. In any case the procedure is a rough guide to the dynamics of any given round, the point of it being that you make enough over and above what you wager when you win, to cover you for the times when you don't. By learning to calculate these simple odds while you are in the middle of a game you will significantly increase you win-loose ratio over time.